Horizon CDT Research Highlights

Research Highlights

Automated Feature Engineering, AutoML, and Decision-Focused Learning for Improved Energy Consumption Forecasting

  Nasser Alkhulaifi (2021 cohort)

Rising energy costs and decarbonisation targets demand smarter, computationally efficient AI-driven energy management. This thesis advances Energy Consumption Forecasting (ECF) by reducing reliance on expert-centric Feature Engineering (FE), a dominant bottleneck in Machine Learning implementation, particularly under small-data constraints. First, it proposes a reproducible end-to-end ECF pipeline for one-week-ahead forecasting. It conducts a systematic ablation study of FE on two real-world datasets, quantifying where domain knowledge contributes most and establishing an automation-ready baseline. Second, it introduces AutoEnergy, a novel, domain-aware, expert-free automated FE algorithm for ECF problems. AutoEnergy composes interpretable temporal representations from timestamps and historical consumption using rule-based operators and integrates with AutoML to enable fully automated ECF modelling. Across 18 heterogeneous real-world datasets spanning residential, commercial, industrial, renewable and grid domains, AutoEnergy reduces forecasting error by 19.52% to 84.72% relative to baseline AutoML and established AFE approaches, while improving computational efficiency by reducing runtime by a factor of 1.31 to 4.40. Third, it operationalises decision-aware forecasting via Decision-Focused Learning (DFL) by coupling prediction with optimisation for energy storage systems. An AutoEnergy-DFL framework is introduced to jointly forecast demand and electricity prices and optimise energy storage scheduling to minimise cost; validated on a real-world dataset and practical system configuration, it reduces operating cost by 22.9% to 56.5% compared with equivalent DFL models without AutoEnergy. Overall, the thesis delivers an automated, interpretable and decision-oriented ECF workflow suitable for diverse energy systems and resource-constrained settings.

Publications

  1. Alkhulaifi, N., Bowler, A.L., Pekaslan, D., Watson, N.J. and Triguero, I., 2025. AutoEnergy: An Automated Feature Engineering Algorithm for Energy Consumption Forecasting with AutoML. Knowledge-Based Systems, p.114300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2025.114300
  2. Alkhulaifi, N., Ismail G. D., Timothy R. C., Bowler, A.L., Pekaslan, D., Watson, N.J. and Triguero, I., 2025. Decision-Focused Learning Enhanced by Automated Feature Engineering for Energy Storage Optimisation. Expert Systems With Applications, p.130554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2025.130554
  3. Alkhulaifi, N., Bowler, A.L., Pekaslanc, D., Triguero, I. and Watson, N.J., 2024. Exploring Automated Feature Engineering for Energy Consumption Forecasting with AutoML. IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC), Malaysia, pp.2993-2998. https://doi.org/10.1109/SMC54092.2024.10831959
  4. Alkhulaifi, N., Bowler, A.L., Pekaslanc, D., Serdaroglu, G., Closs, S., Watson, N.J. and Triguero, I., 2024. Machine Learning Pipeline for Energy and Environmental Prediction in Cold Storage Facilities. IEEE Access. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3482572
  5. Alagoz, B.B., Keles, C., Ates, A., Ă–zdemir, E. and Alkhulaifi, N., 2025. Optimal deep neural network architecture design with improved generalisation for data-driven cooling load estimation. Neural Computing and Applications, pp.1-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-025-11212-7
  6. Canatan, M., Alkhulaifi, N., Watson, N. and Boz, Z., 2025. Artificial Intelligence in Food Manufacturing, A Review of Current Work and Future Opportunities. Food Engineering Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12393-024-09395-1